Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team. Slowly.
The Cost of Late Escalation Recognition
A routine claim sits quietly for months before a demand letter blows through the policy limit. Late escalation recognition is an operating model failure driven by unread documents and reactive defense strategies.
Reserve Delta, Escalation Probability, Comparables: The Feature Set
A single point prediction is useless in litigation. Claims forecasting requires calibrated ranges and traceable drivers to survive the scrutiny of a reserving committee.
Geometric Machine Learning on Resolved Cases
Large language models are word guessers, not calculators. To predict the financial outcome of a lawsuit, you must separate the extraction of text from the mathematics of risk.
Negotiating Settlements From Data, Not Gut
Plaintiff attorneys walk into mediation armed with structured verdicts and funding algorithms. Defense teams walk in with a spreadsheet and a gut feeling. It is time to eliminate this asymmetry at the negotiation table.
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