Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team.
Why Comparable Verdicts Overstate Settlement Exposure
Public trial verdicts are terrible predictors of settlement value. The data is systematically biased toward extreme disagreement, leading models and adjusters alike to radically over-reserve.
Reserving Under Social Inflation
Social inflation has broken traditional reserving methodologies. When claims teams rely on historical averages to set day-one reserves, they guarantee quarter-over-quarter volatility and misallocated defense spend.
From Demo to Deployment: Onboarding a Carrier
A sales demo runs on pristine data, but real claims environments run on massive files and legacy mainframes. Transitioning a carrier from pilot to full deployment exposes the gap between software that looks good and software that works.
When AI Should Say It Doesn't Know
Language models are built to generate plausible text, not calculate risk. When an AI offers a single dollar figure for a complex claim without quantifying its own doubt, it is not predicting. It is guessing.
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