Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team. Slowly.
Inside the Canotera Pipeline: From Case File to Forecast
Processing multi-gigabyte case files requires strict architectural boundaries. We separate the language models that read medicals from the mathematical models that calculate settlement ranges.
Why LLMs Can't Predict Legal Outcomes
A language model generates text that looks like an answer. It does not calculate probabilities based on historical claim geometries. Confusing the two is a fast way to misprice your reserves.
AI as a Building Block in Insurance Analytics
Generative AI makes large, complex legal documents accessible to purpose-built predictive algorithms — when integrated correctly into the analytics pipeline.
Can You Trust LLMs to Predict the Outcome of an Insurance Claim?
Language models generate verbal predictions that sound sensible — but they were trained to sound logical, not to be mathematically sound.
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