Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team. Slowly.
Why LLMs Can't Predict Legal Outcomes
A language model generates text that looks like an answer. It does not calculate probabilities based on historical claim geometries. Confusing the two is a fast way to misprice your reserves.
AI as a Building Block in Insurance Analytics
Generative AI makes large, complex legal documents accessible to purpose-built predictive algorithms — when integrated correctly into the analytics pipeline.
Can You Trust LLMs to Predict the Outcome of an Insurance Claim?
Language models generate verbal predictions that sound sensible — but they were trained to sound logical, not to be mathematically sound.
Social Inflation and the Case for Early Escalation Detection
A claim lands on your desk. The initial reserve looks manageable. Eighteen months later, it settles at 4x the estimate.
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