Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team.
Can You Trust LLMs to Predict the Outcome of an Insurance Claim?
Language models generate verbal predictions that sound sensible — but they were trained to sound logical, not to be mathematically sound.
Science
Social Inflation and the Case for Early Escalation Detection
A claim lands on your desk. The initial reserve looks manageable. Eighteen months later, it settles at 4x the estimate.
Field notes
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