Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team.
Designing for Traceability: Every Forecast Links to Evidence
A forecast is useless to a claims professional if they cannot defend it. Traceability requires engineering the system to link every predicted outcome directly to the source document that generated it.
Generation Is Not Prediction
Large language models are built to produce plausible text, not accurate forecasts. Confusing a statistical parrot for a mathematical pricing engine is a fast way to misprice your entire claims portfolio.
Predicting the Outcome of Disputes: What Claims Leaders Need
Setting initial reserves based on gut instinct and a quick skim of a file is a liability. In an era of social inflation and litigation funding, claims leaders need calibrated forecasts, not wait-and-see guesswork.
Ingesting Thousands of Pages Per Claim Without Losing Signal
A claim file is a chaotic data swamp of pleadings, medical records, and emails. Extracting the structural reality of a case from this mess requires treating ingestion as an engineering discipline, not a generic text-parsing task.
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