Settlement Probability
With its calibrated confidence band
Forecasts on every claim. Calibrated. Traceable. On time.
Every open claim gets a settlement range, escalation probability, comparable cases, reserve delta, and projected defense costs, so your team negotiates against numbers, not instinct.
What lands on the claim?
When the platform integrates with your claims system, every open claim gains the same set of published values — each one rendering inside the system the team already uses.
Damage Range
Anchored to comparable outcomes
Reserve Delta
Against the reserve currently posted on the claim
Comparable Cases
References from your historical book and external sources
Drivers
What impacted the predicted outcomes
Escalation Probability
The risk associated with keeping the claim unresolved
Same forecasting engine.Different ways to deploy it.
- 01For commercial carriersBook a Demo
- 02For self-insured enterprises, including captivesBook a Demo
- 03For TPAsTalk Integration
- 04For brokersTalk Partnership
- 05For reinsurersBook a Demo
Six capabilities.
Settlement Forecasting
A calibrated settlement range on every open claim, anchored to comparable claims and your own historical book — so negotiations start against a defensible number.
Escalation Risk Modeling
The probability a claim escalates to representation, suit, or complex dispute — read against every claim that escalated before it, so senior adjusters arrive on the right files early.
Case Trajectory Modeling
A forecast of how the case unfolds — escalation, litigation path, venue effects, milestones, and the probabilities on each likely resolution — to inform settle, ADR, or try.
Coverage Intelligence
The policy read alongside the facts of the claim — clauses pulled, exclusions surfaced, triggers named — so coverage is interpreted the same way across the team.
Comparable Case Intelligence
The closest comparables from millions of public and proprietary outcomes — by jurisdiction, injury, counsel, and file specifics — with what they actually settled for and when.
Litigation Spend Governance
Defense spend read against outcome across the book — by panel firm, case type, and jurisdiction — so authority and panel routing track predicted exposure, not invoice history.
Where it fits in your workflows.
The platform reads from your claims systems, document repositories, and matter-management tools. We do not replace any of them — the forecast object renders inside them, via embed, API, or a thin native panel. Implementation is a phased rollout: historical claims load first, the model calibrates against your own history, and new forecasts begin once calibration meets the agreed threshold.
Input
Claims system
Forecast object
ComparablesDriversRange
Where teams use the forecast
Adjuster View
Settlement range, drivers, and comparables inside the claim system your team already uses
Reserving Queue
Claims ranked by reserve drift and escalation risk — highest predicted exposure first
Counsel Routing
Panel and settlement authority routed by predicted exposure, not defense spend to date
Trust and compliance.
Compliance & Encryption
Enterprise-grade security standards
The platform is ISO 27001 certified, with SOC 2 Type II attestation in progress. Data is encrypted in transit and at rest, access is role-based, and every forecast carries an audit trail back to the inputs and the comparable cases that produced it.
Data Isolation
Your data never leaves your environment
When data can't leave your environment in identifiable form, we de-identify it onsite, process only the anonymized data, and re-attach the forecast on its way back. Full on-premise deployment is on the roadmap; details live on /blog-privacy.
Run it on one of your own cases.
Submit one of your claims to Canotera, and we will generate a complimentary forecast for you. No costs and no strings attached.