Blog • Science

Can You Trust LLMs to Predict the Outcome of an Insurance Claim?

Language models generate verbal predictions that sound sensible — but they were trained to sound logical, not to be mathematically sound.

  • By David H. Silver
  • Head of AI
  • 18 April 2025
  • 3 min read

Can you trust LLMs to predict the outcome of an insurance claim?

The answer is obviously no — and this isn't a limitation of the technology. It's an intrinsic property.

Language models generate verbal predictions that sound sensible. But they were trained to sound logical, not to be mathematically sound. And they can always hallucinate to support their own reasoning — which means you can never fully trace how they got there.

At Canotera, we draw a hard line. Generative AI ingests the data. For the prediction itself, we use time-tested, theory-backed geometric machine learning models trained on millions of cases with known outcomes — delivering numerical predictions you can trust, paired with traceable reasoning from fine-tuned proprietary models.

LLMs are extraordinary at language. But generation is not prediction. When accuracy matters, you need proper algorithms.

Want to talk to an Executive?

Press, partners, investors, candidates — the inbox is monitored. Tell us who you are and we'll route it to the right person within two business days.