Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team.
Showing 14 posts · David H. Silver
Clear filtersGeneration Is Not Prediction
Large language models are built to produce plausible text, not accurate forecasts. Confusing a statistical parrot for a mathematical pricing engine is a fast way to misprice your entire claims portfolio.
Conformal Prediction for Claims: Ranges, Not Point Guesses
A machine learning model that predicts a precise settlement dollar amount for a casualty claim is lying to you. Litigation is probabilistic, and your forecasting models must mathematically respect that reality.
Why LLMs Can't Predict Legal Outcomes
A language model generates text that looks like an answer. It does not calculate probabilities based on historical claim geometries. Confusing the two is a fast way to misprice your reserves.
AI as a Building Block in Insurance Analytics
Generative AI makes large, complex legal documents accessible to purpose-built predictive algorithms — when integrated correctly into the analytics pipeline.
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