Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team.
Showing 13 posts · Yariv Lissauer
Clear filtersNegotiating When Your Comp Database Is Trial-Biased
A jury verdict is the definition of an outlier—the artifact of a case where the settlement process failed. Yet claims teams still bring binders of trial outcomes to mediation, anchoring their negotiation strategy to extreme anomalies.
The Med-Mal Funnel: Most Claims Pay Nothing
The vast majority of medical malpractice claims close without an indemnity payment. Yet carriers bleed defense dollars treating every file like a nuclear threat.
Stop Anchoring Reserves to Headline Verdicts
A plaintiff attorney attaches a news clipping of an eight-figure verdict to a demand letter, and claims teams instinctively spike the reserve. This reaction traps capital, guarantees over-litigation, and fundamentally misprices risk.
Reserving Under Social Inflation
Social inflation has broken traditional reserving methodologies. When claims teams rely on historical averages to set day-one reserves, they guarantee quarter-over-quarter volatility and misallocated defense spend.
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