Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team.
Showing 11 posts · Field notes · Yariv Lissauer
Clear filtersStop Anchoring Reserves to Headline Verdicts
A plaintiff attorney attaches a news clipping of an eight-figure verdict to a demand letter, and claims teams instinctively spike the reserve. This reaction traps capital, guarantees over-litigation, and fundamentally misprices risk.
Reserving Under Social Inflation
Social inflation has broken traditional reserving methodologies. When claims teams rely on historical averages to set day-one reserves, they guarantee quarter-over-quarter volatility and misallocated defense spend.
From Reactive to Proactive Claims Management
The difference between a reactive claims organization and a proactive one is the trigger for reserving. If you wait for a plaintiff demand or a deposition to understand your exposure, you are already losing the case.
How Predictive Analytics Changes the Claims Operating Model
Claims departments are losing millions to delayed escalation and reactive reserving. Changing the operating model requires moving from instinct to calibrated, case-level forecasting.
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