Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team. Slowly.
Showing 8 posts · Field notes · Yariv Lissauer
Clear filtersWhere Defense Spend Is Wasted
The root cause of misallocated defense spend is not exorbitant hourly rates. It is the failure to understand the true exposure of a claim on day one, forcing carriers to fund procedural skirmishes while plaintiffs build damages.
Litigation Funding and the New Math of Claim Exposure
Third-party capital has fundamentally altered the incentives driving bodily injury claims. When the plaintiff's side plays a portfolio game to maximize returns, defense strategies built on historical payout curves become obsolete.
Predicting the Outcome of Disputes: What Claims Leaders Need
Setting initial reserves based on gut instinct and a quick skim of a file is a liability. In an era of social inflation and litigation funding, claims leaders need calibrated forecasts, not wait-and-see guesswork.
Why Day-One Reserves Are Systematically Wrong
Setting an initial reserve is an exercise in institutional guesswork. Adjusters are forced to pick a number before the facts materialize, creating a compounding cycle of misallocated defense spend and missed negotiation leverage.
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