Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team.
Showing 11 posts · Field notes · Yariv Lissauer
Clear filtersCalibrated Reserves: A Better Day-One Number
Setting the initial reserve is often an exercise in defensive guessing. The alternative is a calibrated range that reflects the actual distribution of risk from day one.
The Cost of Late Escalation Recognition
A routine claim sits quietly for months before a demand letter blows through the policy limit. Late escalation recognition is an operating model failure driven by unread documents and reactive defense strategies.
Negotiating Settlements From Data, Not Gut
Plaintiff attorneys walk into mediation armed with structured verdicts and funding algorithms. Defense teams walk in with a spreadsheet and a gut feeling. It is time to eliminate this asymmetry at the negotiation table.
Where Defense Spend Is Wasted
The root cause of claims leakage is not exorbitant hourly rates. It is the failure to understand the true exposure of a claim on day one, forcing carriers to fund procedural skirmishes while plaintiffs build damages.
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