Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team.
Showing 14 posts · Field notes
Clear filtersWhy Day-One Reserves Are Systematically Wrong
Setting an initial reserve is an exercise in institutional guesswork. Adjusters are forced to pick a number before the facts materialize, creating a compounding cycle of misallocated defense spend and missed negotiation leverage.
Social Inflation and the Case for Early Escalation Detection
A claim lands on your desk. The initial reserve looks manageable. Eighteen months later, it settles at 4x the estimate.
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