Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team.
Showing 15 posts · Science
Clear filtersLiability Probability Dominates the Number
A plaintiff attorney demands ten million dollars, forcing the defense to fixate on the gross damages ceiling. But the mathematical reality of litigation risk is driven almost entirely by the probability of liability.
Verdicts Are Not Payouts
When a jury awards fifty million dollars, the defense rarely writes a check for fifty million dollars. Building predictive models on raw verdict data guarantees an upward bias that will destroy your reserving strategy.
Why Comparable Verdicts Overstate Settlement Exposure
Public trial verdicts are terrible predictors of settlement value. The data is systematically biased toward extreme disagreement, leading models and adjusters alike to radically over-reserve.
When AI Should Say It Doesn't Know
Language models are built to generate plausible text, not calculate risk. When an AI offers a single dollar figure for a complex claim without quantifying its own doubt, it is not predicting. It is guessing.
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