Posts on what we actually think.
Essays on conformal prediction, social inflation, and where generative AI helps and where it doesn't. Written by the team.
Liability Probability Dominates the Number
A plaintiff attorney demands ten million dollars, forcing the defense to fixate on the gross damages ceiling. But the mathematical reality of litigation risk is driven almost entirely by the probability of liability.
The Med-Mal Funnel: Most Claims Pay Nothing
The vast majority of medical malpractice claims close without an indemnity payment. Yet carriers bleed defense dollars treating every file like a nuclear threat.
Module Boundaries: Verdict-Heavy vs Settlement-Anchored Data
Jury verdicts are useful for tail risk, trial severity, and what a jury actually does. They are the wrong target for a settlement value. Mixing the two distributions in one model corrupts the forecast.
Verdicts Are Not Payouts
When a jury awards fifty million dollars, the defense rarely writes a check for fifty million dollars. Building predictive models on raw verdict data guarantees an upward bias that will destroy your reserving strategy.
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